December 29, 2009

Indian Central Bank Buys IMF Gold

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has increased the quantity of its gold holdings. With a recent purchase of 200 tonnes of gold from the International Monetary Fund, the Indian Central Bank is now the ninth or tenth largest holder of gold globally.

Executed as a part of its foreign exchange reserves management, the RBI recently purchased $6.7 billion USD worth of the IMF's gold, from Oct. 19 to Oct. 30th 2009. Although the RBI does not officially discuss its diversification strategy, speculation is rampant that the purchase may be part of India's push for greater influence within the IMF itself.

India, along with other emerging BRIC economies (Brazil, Russia, India, and China) is jockeying for greater bearing on the global economic stage, and this recent move may be a tactic of this strategy. The Indian economy has grown rapidly in recent years, and is now in aggregate, a $1.2 trillion USD economy.

According to the latest data, of India’s total foreign reserves of $285.5 billion on Oct. 23, 2009, slightly more than $10 billion worth was in gold. The recent purchase has increased India’s percentage of gold holdings in its portfolio, from approximately 4 percent to approximately 6 percent. The purchase was one of the largest single purchases of gold by a Central Bank, in memory.

Portfolio-wise, Indian gold holdings are on average much less than most Central Banks of the developed world, but interestingly, Indian gold holdings are approximately four times the size of China's share. With this recent move, perhaps New Delhi may be trying to assert its strength in world economic affairs, relative to the other BRIC nations.

For gold markets in general, the picture is less clear. What does the RBI’s decision signal for the global gold market? Does India’s recent move potentially signify the beginning of a new bull market for bullion? Only time will tell.

Posted via web from Global Business News

November 21, 2009

US and Asian GDP Return to Growth

 

American GDP is growing again.

After four consecutive quarters of GDP decline, the US Economy grew in the third quarter by 3.5%.  This ends the longest contraction in the US economy since the Great Depression. The 3.5 per cent growth figures were stronger than expected by some analysts, including Goldman Sachs, who had forecast only 2.7 per cent growth. 

Simultaneously, the IMF has doubled its forecast for Asian economic growth in 2010. 

The region’s prospects have improved dramatically over the past 6 months due to the concerted efforts of Asian Governments to nurse their economies back to health. China, South Korea, India, and Japan have taken the lead in this regard. The International Monetary Fund has forecast GDP growth of 2.8 per cent for 2009, and 5.8 per cent in 2010 for the region. 

The “Great Recession”, as it has come to be known, may be technically over according to the Economists, but it's been replaced by fears that this may only be a statistical recovery. The manifest growth in the US is literally underwritten by billions of dollars in US Federal government spending. Some economists posit that all of the government money in the US system will lead to an artificial and jobless recovery in America. Last month's US jobless rate was 9.8 per cent, its highest rate in 26 years. 

Nonetheless, third quarter figures indicate that 2010 will be a year of growth in the American economy, which is certainly reassuring news for the Global economy, as the US Economy is currently underperforming globally.

Posted via web from Global Business News

October 12, 2009

Taiwan lab develops panda robot


The world's first panda robot is taking shape at a cutting-edge lab in Taiwan where an ambitious group of scientists hope to add new dimensions to the island's reputation as a high-tech power. The Centre for Intelligent Robots Research aims to develop pandas that are friendlier and more artistically endowed than their endangered real-life counterparts.

"The panda robot will be very cute and more attracted to humans. Maybe the panda robot can be made to sing a panda song," said Jerry Lin, the centre's 52-year-old director. Day by day, the panda evolves on the centre's computer screens and, if funding permits, the robot will take its first steps by the end of the year.

"It's the first time we try to construct a quadrupedal robot. We need to consider the balance problem," said 28-year-old Jo Po-chia, a doctoral student who is in charge of the robot's design. The robo-panda is just one of many projects on the drawing board at the centre, which is attached to the National Taiwan University of Science and Technology, the island's version of Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

The Taipei-based centre also aims to build robots that look like popular singers, so exact replicas of world stars can perform in the comfort of their fans' homes. "It could be a Madonna robot. It will be a completely different experience from just listening to audio," said Lin.

Commercial value is what counts for Lin, who hopes to contribute to the Taiwan economy at a time when it has matured and no longer exhibits the stellar growth of the earlier take-off phase. "If I write 25 academic papers, I won't contribute anything. But if I create something people need, I will contribute to the Taiwan economy," he said. Lin and his team are also working on educational robots that can act as private tutors for children, teaching them vocabulary or telling them stories in foreign languages.

There is an obvious target market: China, with its tens of millions of middle-class parents doting on the one child they are allowed under strict population policies. "Asian parents are prepared to spend a lot of money to teach their children languages," said Lin.

Robots running amok are a fixture of popular literature but parents do not have to worry about leaving their children home alone with their artificial teachers, he said. "A robot may hit you like a car or a motorbike might hit you. But it won't suddenly lose control and get violent. Humans lose control, not robots. It's not like that."


Lin's long-term dream is to create a fully-functioning Robot Theatre of Taiwan, with an ensemble of life-like robots able to sing, dance and entertain. Two robotic pioneers, Thomas and Janet, appeared before an audience in Taiwan in December, performing scenes from the Phantom of the Opera, but that was just the beginning, Lin said.

"You can imagine a robot shooting down balloons, like in the wild west, using two revolvers, or three, but much faster than a person. Some things robots can do better than humans with the aid of technologies," Lin said.

His vision is to turn the show into an otherworldly experience where robots and humans mix seamlessly on stage, leaving the audience in doubt which is which. But the bottomline is the bottomline. Lin wants commercial viability, in the interest of his home island.

"I want to be able to go to an amusement park in the US and see a building where on top it says, 'Robot Theatre from Taiwan'. That's my lifetime goal," he said.

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Source:

http://nz.news.yahoo.com/a/-/technology/6077266/taiwan-lab-develops-panda-robot/

Tags:

China, Taipei, Robot panda, Robot Theatre of Taiwan, National Taiwan University of Science and Technology, Global IT News, The Centre for Intelligent Robots Research,

Posted via email from Global Business News

September 16, 2009

Australia, US to Invite China to War Games


Australia and the United States will invite China to take part in joint military exercises to help ease fears about an arms race in the Asia-Pacific region.

Ties between Australia and China have been strained over concerns about Beijing's military expansion and the precarious nature of trade negotiations. As a way of soothing tensions, Australian and U.S. defense officials have agreed to approach the Chinese about taking part in joint military exercises.


Admiral Timothy Keating, the commander of U.S. forces in the Pacific, told a Sydney newspaper that talks with Beijing were a positive sign that China was willing to cooperate in the plan. Keating also expressed hope that any joint exercise would help the U.S. and its allies better understand China's reasons for boosting its weapons capabilities.


The U.S. is reportedly worried that some of China's military ambitions do not appear to be peaceful. Andrew Davies from the Australian Strategic Policy Institute thinks that closer military sides will benefit all three countries. "It gives each side confidence in the ability of the other to act professionally and it also teaches each side how the other tends to operate, which can reduce the opportunity for accidents and misunderstandings," he said.


China's ambassador to Australia, Zhang Junsai, has welcomed the prospect of joint army and navy exercises as a way of ensuring regional stability and peace. Tensions between Australia and China have intensified recently over Canberra's decision to grant a visa to an exiled ethnic Uighur activist and the arrest in Beijing of an Australian mining executive accused of infringing trade secrets and bribery.

Zhang Junsai hopes the problems can be ironed out. "Current difficulties in bilateral relations is something that China does not want to see. So, we hope Australia will join China to respect and accommodate each other's interests and our concerns," said Zhang. Few details have been released about possible joint military exercises between China, the United States and Australia.

Reports have suggested they could include naval and land activities as well personnel exchanges. A U.S. military spokesman at Admiral Keating's headquarters in Hawaii said that no formal invitations to join an exercise had yet been extended to China.

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Source:

http://www.voanews.com/english/2009-09-03-voa14.cfm

Tags:

Australia, United States, China, joint military exercises, arms race, Asia-Pacific region, Beijing's military expansion, trade negotiations, soothing tensions, U.S. defense officials, Admiral Timothy Keating, U.S. forces in the Pacific,

Posted via email from Global Business News

September 4, 2009

Who's To Blame For The Mortgage Crisis?


If you're having a hard time getting your head around exactly what happened in the historic meltdown of America's home-mortgage market, you're not alone.

As the wife-and-husband investigative team Leslie and Andrew Cockburn suggest in their new documentary, "American Casino," nobody fully understands it: Not the bankers and brokers who sold subprime mortgages (often using deceptive tactics or disingenuous language), not the Wall Street wizards who carved them up into ever more esoteric financial instruments, not the free-market wise men like former Fed chair Alan Greenspan or former Sen. Phil Gramm, and certainly not the ordinary citizens who believed they were fulfilling the American dream and wound up losing their homes, their financial security and their self-respect.

Actually, the Cockburns meet one guy in "American Casino" who understands the whole mess better than most, a California real estate investor named Jeff Greene who smelled the end of the housing bubble around 2006 and bet $1 billion against the mid-decade exuberance of Wall Street. Sitting in his walled and gated beach compound in Malibu, Greene calmly tells the camera that the opportunity for his successful hedge bet (which has yielded $500 million so far) involved massive pain for millions of homeowners.

We meet some of those people too; the Cockburns focus in particular on the African-American community of Baltimore, a city devastated by the tidal wave of foreclosures. Of course foreclosed properties can be found in virtually every neighborhood of every town and city, and at every income level. But Latinos and African-Americans are several times more likely to be affected than whites, and while the problem is undeniably complicated, that almost certainly reflects the enduring legacy of racism. In the 1990s and 2000s, neighborhoods that had previously been "redlined" by traditional lenders became targeted by unregulated and unscrupulous vendors of subprime mortgages, who neither knew nor cared whether borrowers were likely to default on those loans. As we now know, the results were toxic.

One of the film's sad ironies is that middle-class homeowners like Denzel Mitchell, a Baltimore high-school teacher, or Patricia McNair, a family therapist, might well have qualified for conventional loans from normal banks. (One survey mentioned in the film suggests that at least half the people who applied for subprime mortgages in 2006 could have qualified for prime mortgages.) Instead, they were enticed into too-good-to-be-true first and then second mortgages that adjusted sharply upward, which they couldn't realistically afford. Both people are aware that their own lack of financial sophistication is partly to blame for their predicament, but that does nothing to lessen the heartbreak as McNair and her husband have to leave the appealing family home where her adult children grew up, or as Mitchell must abandon his organic vegetable garden and the Tuskegee Airmen-themed bedroom for his little boys.

But if you want to blame somebody for what happened to Mitchell, McNair and millions of other Americans, the place to point the finger is at the fervid deregulation advocated by Greenspan and enacted by Congress under the whip of Gramm and other free-market ideologues. Such laissez-faire reforms created a wide-open marketplace where bankers and brokers could sell whatever extortionate mortgage deals they wanted to whomever they wanted, while lying to consumers about what they were getting and lying to lenders about the borrower's income and assets. Meanwhile, as one anonymous former Bear, Stearns banker tells the Cockburns, Wall Street securities dealers carved up packages of mortgages into abstruse, "fourth-dimensional" instruments to be sold to "idiots."

"American Casino" is of necessity a fragmentary tale; it was being filmed in 2008 as the crisis broadened and deepened, with events unfolding too fast for the Cockburn cameras. But while the mortgage crisis still awaits a rigorous deconstruction along the lines of Alex Gibney's "Enron: The Smartest Guys in the Room," this film stands as an intimate, terrifying document that renders an incomprehensible slice of recent history in human terms. While the stories of Denzel Mitchell and Patricia McNair made me want to weep, the film's most memorable images stem from the Sisyphean task of Jared Dever, a bright and handsome local official in Riverside County, Calif., whose job is to control the county's mosquito epidemic, largely caused by the fetid, abandoned swimming pools behind foreclosed suburban homes.

Dever patrols a nightmarish, new-but-decrepit landscape straight out of the fiction of J.G. Ballard, carefully checking empty houses for signs of meth labs or marijuana grow zones before attacking the pools, whose algae-green water is full of abandoned patio furniture, tires and sports equipment, along with millions of mosquito larvae and the minnows who live on them. I'm not sure that hosing down the whole subdivision with Malathion is any kind of answer. Civilization didn't leave much of an imprint on that place. Now that the bankers have sucked out all its supposed economic value, we might as well drain the pools, knock down the houses and let the coyotes and rattlesnakes take over.

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Source:

http://www.salon.com/ent/movies/btm/feature/2009/09/02/casino/index.html?source=rss&aim=/ent/movies/btm/feature

Tags:

Salon, American Casino, Leslie and Andrew Cockburn, documentary, bankers, brokers, subprime mortgages, Jeff Greene, redlined, Phil Gramm, Alan Greenspan, Global Economic News,

Posted via email from Global Business News

September 2, 2009

Workers Adjust To The New F-word: Furloughs


"Furlough Fridays" for John Krumm may as well be called "Food Bank Fridays."

Along with 210,000 fellow state government workers, the driver and safety clerk for the Department of Motor Vehicles is helping California balance its battered budget by taking an unpaid day off from work three Fridays each month. But he's not going to Project Open Hand's kitchen to volunteer. "I go to save money and get food for my table," says Krumm, describing a still-life tableau of his furlough handout:

"Couple pieces of chicken. Some fruits and vegetables. Beans, milk and cheese. I'm losing $450 each month from my paycheck, so I'm watching every penny," he says. "And if they make us take off any more days, I won't be able to afford my rent."

As private and public employers seek to whittle overhead while skirting the heavier costs of laying off and rehiring staff, millions of workers are being poked and prodded with America's hottest management tool.

"Furloughs make sense because if you have a good employee, you want to do whatever you can to keep them," says labor lawyer Michael S. Bernick, former head of California's Employment Development Department under Gov. Gray Davis. "But while they may help reduce layoffs, they have their other side — for most workers, taking a 10 to 20 percent pay cut is a big hit."

Furloughs can also create huge workload backups as well as raise sticky legal questions for employers who try to force exempt workers into unpaid leaves. And critics like San Francisco State University professor John Sullivan say the management tool could actually end up causing more workplace problems than they solve. "If you cut everyone's pay," he says, "you'll drive away your top performers and end up with mediocre people."

Cost-cutting tool

As the new F-word makes the rounds of the water-cooler and cocktail-party circuit, it seems everyone from autoworkers to bridge inspectors to newspaper reporters is being forced to take unpaid leave as companies try to stay afloat and governments slash budgets. Firm numbers are hard to come by, according to economist Stephen Levy, who says that in the private sector, at least, "as long as sales start to pick up slightly, we're probably at the peak of layoffs and furloughs right now."

But in an economy where 6.7 million jobs have disappeared since the recession began in December 2007, and as private wages and salaries continue to fall each month, no one's betting against the prospect of more furloughs. In fact, 6 percent of employers surveyed by the consulting firm Watson Wyatt Worldwide say they will force mandatory furloughs within the next 12 months, while nearly one in 10 of those asked say they expect to implement a shortened workweek over the same time frame.

And while nearly half the state governments have instituted or proposed furloughs, it may have been California's historic embrace that moved them onto the front page. In addition to planned layoffs, California hopes to save $3 billion over 17 months by sending home state employees the first three Fridays of each month. With the Department of Personnel Administration using the tool for the first time to bridge its gaping deficit, spokeswoman Lynelle Jolley says furloughs were the best fix for a dire situation.

"With the state in a precarious position, we needed to conserve cash immediately," she says. "The layoff process can be quite lengthy, but with furloughs we can achieve savings immediately. We were desperate."

State governments seem to be taking a page from industries like heavy manufacturing and airlines, which historically have furloughed employees when business slowed. In Silicon Valley, temporary shutdowns have been a common practice, often a year-end tradition at many high-tech firms.

Mark Perry, a computer programmer with 30 years' experience in the valley, says state workers are now "getting a taste of real life that we've known for years in tech. They've been sort of sheltered. "I was with Intel, Fairchild, 23 different companies, and I was furloughed at about half of them until business turned around," says Perry, laid off in 2003 from Applied Materials. "The first time it's a bit of a shock, because you depend on a certain amount of income. But gradually you learn to treat it like you're on a pretend vacation. You kind of expect it and build it into the salary you think you're making. "Furloughs," Perry says, "train you not to live paycheck to paycheck."

Beats a layoff, but "...

A lot of affected employees are conflicted: Having a job is great — but taking a pay cut to keep that job stinks. First-timers like John Krumm are struggling with furlough shock. "I think it's a shame," says Krumm, who works at a San Francisco branch of the DMV. "You've already cut our pay by 14 percent, and if you add another day, you're up to 18 percent. People working here will now be making less than they made when they started 10 years ago."

For a couple employed by the state, the furloughs can be devastating. Krumm says "a lot of my colleagues at the DMV are filing for bankruptcy. A lot of them have a partner or husband who works for the state," which is a double whammy for the family budget.

While most experts stress the positive impacts of furloughs over layoffs, no one says they're a panacea. They punish lower-paid workers disproportionately; they can torpedo workplace morale; and workers whose pay has been cut make for lousy consumers, saving more and spending less, hampering a quick economic recovery.

Forced to downsize by his boss to a three-day workweek, San Jose real estate professional William Huey says his furlough threw him off kilter, "because I'd had this structured routine and suddenly everything changed. On my days off, I had to think, 'What am I supposed to be doing today?' "

Even though his three days eventually turned into a layoff, Huey does see some benefits to mandatory time off. "In retrospect,'' says Huey, who used his forced leave to help his wife start a private Chinese-language school, "it was as if I'd been allowed to leave my job gradually, because having that time off gives you the chance to explore other ideas you may want to try. The furlough,'' he says, "was like the severance package I never got in the end."

Hard choices

Yet for Rick Binger, furloughs became a powerful if painful management tool to save his San Francisco catalog marketing firm and, he hopes, will ensure that his six staffers all have jobs when the recession recedes. In February, faced with a virtual collapse of his business, Binger had his employees take a month off without pay. When new business didn't materialize, the furlough grew even longer until work picked up and employees started coming back to their jobs in July.

"I told everyone I was really sorry, but I just didn't have any work so there was no income coming in," he says. "My hands were tied. Everyone sacrificed, and I think they knew that as hard as this was, it was better than being laid off."

The use of furloughs, says Binger, "enabled me to survive over those four months." Others, though, say furloughs create more problems than they fix. Sullivan, of San Francisco State University, is not only a passionate critic of the practice, but he's now being forced to take a furlough himself as part of the college system's efforts to cut costs.

"I ask employers, 'Why are you doing furloughs?' and they say, 'Because the other guy is,' " he says. "But they're a fad and they don't really save money. It's the poorly managed companies that use them, not places like Microsoft or Google."

Sullivan says the smarter route would be better planning, a greater push for productivity gains — and the corner-office fortitude to let heads roll. "Managers are chicken to make the tough decision and let you go. But that's what a great manager does."

"When you cut time and not workload," he says, "you've really compounded the problem you had to begin with." Just ask Krumm. DMV offices on Monday mornings after a Friday furlough have been described on online forums as a circuslike crush of humanity, with drivers lined up out the door to reach clerks whose workloads have been stacking up since Thursday. "After a while,'' Krumm says, "they have to stop people from coming in the door because otherwise we'd be in violation of the fire code."

FURLOUGH FACTS

Although the actual number of furloughs is hard to come by, one national survey of employers found some interesting statistics:

» 17 percent of employers surveyed in April said they had initiated mandatory furloughs, up from 11 percent the previous month.

» Nearly one in 10 employers expect to implement a shortened workweek within the next 12 months.

» Another 6 percent will force mandatory furloughs.

» 9 percent say they"ll have voluntary furloughs.

» 7 percent have cut workers" salaries.

Source: Watson Wyatt Worldwide

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Tags:

California state government workers, Department of Motor Vehicles, unpaid day off, Project Open Hand's, furlough, Michael S. Bernick, California's Employment Development Department, Gov. Gray Davis, San Francisco State University, John Sullivan,

Posted via email from Global Business News

August 29, 2009

High Frequency Trading: The Rise of the Machines


As a professional trader, you are confronted daily with all kinds of dynamics and situations that require a flexible and adaptive mind. You are faced with multiple variables constantly interacting with each other and your task is to process ever-changing information quickly and profitably. Valuations arbitrage, reflexive supply-and-demand dynamics, and structural changes are recurrent landmines in the typical day of traders and money managers.

We accept this “dangerous” line of work for only two reasons: monetary compensation and pride in being part of capital markets, that transmission mechanism without which innovation and creativity would be prisoners of their own ethereal state.

As a society, we are ready to strike compromises in return for a system that will allow the ethereal state of our creativity to turn into reality. We allow market insiders like market makers, broker-dealers, and others to have small advantages over us mortal investors in order to have them create the positive externalities that help us build a more sophisticated economic system. We give market makers and specialists a privileged look at the order flow (the supply and demand of stocks) in exchange for their commitment to maintaining orderly markets whenever an imbalance occurs.

We give systemic firms like JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs privileged access to liquidity via the Federal Reserve so that the banking system and capital markets can continue to serve us in our quest to invent, produce, and distribute new products. But sometimes things turn out more like a bad inland casino rather than a better market… We may still be reeling from the systemic economic collapse of last year, but new structural changes with potential negative externalities are already at our door.

For months I have witnessed strange dynamics in the way markets behaved: liquidity issues, intra-day volatility, and a constant disconnection between technical, sentiment and fundamental inputs. Markets often go through periods of irrationality, but this time it felt different.

As a professional trader and an educator on markets, my sensitivity level is higher than normal and I immediately began conducting research to make sense of my discomfort. This process pointed consistently to one element: high frequency trading or as I like to call it “the rise of the machines.”

What is High Frequency Trading?

High frequency trading (HFT) was, until recently, a topic confined to Wall Street insiders. Only in the last few weeks has it become a mainstream subject of debate via articles on theNew York Times, the Washington Post, and interviews on CNBC (yes even CNBC’s clueless anchors can now spell HFT).

The reason for this foray into the mainstream media is the potential negative ramifications HFT can have for all of us: investors, entrepreneurs, and just plain hopeful citizens.

But first, let’s define HFT as it is a very technical classification that, nonetheless, encompasses many different things. Generally speaking, HFT is high velocity trading based on mathematical algorithms that create huge daily volume on different electronic exchanges and platforms. It is machine against machine—endless trading in order to capture fractions of pennies in profits. But, so far so good: the machines provide liquidity to all of us. The owners of the machines (financial institutions) make an all-American profit and the liquidity aggregators (electronic exchanges) provide competition to other exchanges in the most capitalistic way.

But what happens if we scratch the surface? Like Michel de Montaigne, the famed Renaissance scholar, once said: “There is no man so good, who, were he to submit all his thoughts and actions to the law would not deserve hanging ten times over.”

High frequency algorithmic trading is ridden with issues:

Volume. Machine-driven trading is over 60% of trading volume on a daily basis and in some confined cases it can be as high as 90%.

Adaptability. Machines are unthinking units that do not adapt to human reactions. HFT algorithms are based on correlations and historical relationships, which are great guidelines for trading and investing but by no means they can be used blindly (see: 1987 portfolio insurance, long-term capital management 1998, credit default swaps 2008, mortgage-backed securities 2008…the list of quant-related disasters is a sad one).

Exclusivity. HFT can only work by using incredibly fast and powerful computers that also must be placed in the exchanges as proximity helps the speed. Few people can afford the computers and/or the co-location fees charged by the electronic exchanges.

Flash quotes. Some brokers have access to quotes of orders before anyone else. By exploiting the speed of their machines, they can either arbitrage price differentials or potentially front-run clients. Another abuse of flash quotes (called flash because they last one–to-three milliseconds) is that they can be used as teaser quotes to gauge supply and demand without the risk of being hit due to their quickness.

Rebates. Many high frequency traders trade not for profit but for rebates paid by the electronic platforms to attract liquidity. This escamotage incentivizes useless and toxic volume.

While these are only the most immediate concerns about HFT, they have a potentially disproportionate influence on the cost of running our capital markets. The HFT lobby pushes the argument that they create positive externalities by exploiting improving technology—but there is a difference between volume and liquidity.

If over 60% of trading is toxic, it will go away in a nanosecond and most likely it will dissipate right when investors and money managers need it the most. This could cause a huge liquidity vacuum and a 1987-type of event. Liquidity is created by market players with a stake in the game, not by casino-like machines. Flash quotes and “predatory algorithms” also raise the cost of execution for the necessarily slower institutions like pension funds and mutual funds. Additionally, the surreal tempo of machine trading makes trading for all more expensive as we now have to prepare for the irrational moves and volatility of markets when executing our trades.

I love this business and I love technology, but checks and balances are needed to preserve our capital markets. Little adjustments can be made to reduce systemic risk, like re-instating circuit breakers that cut off program trading when price changes accelerate beyond certain parameters, like investigation or stopping flash quotes that drive front running, like making good on teaser quotes for longer than just three milliseconds, and so on. In the end, we need to understand that capital markets are here not to destabilize our economy, but to serve us as a society and help us make better lives.

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Source:

http://gbr.pepperdine.edu/blog/index.php/2009/08/10/1341/

August 17, 2009

Russian, Ukrainian Tug of War Over History


Russian historians widely recognize June 27, 1709 as the date their country became a great power. Russia that day defeated an invading Swedish army at Poltava in Ukraine, where Ukrainian forces allied with Sweden were also vanquished. The Battle of Poltava is not just history, but another source of ongoing friction between Moscow and Kyiv.


Poltava is recognized as the pivotal battle in the Great Northern War, a 21-year struggle, in which Russia replaced Sweden as the great power of Northern Europe in the early 18th century. Poltava also ended Ukrainian aspirations for independence from Russia.

"Traitor Mazepa"

The leader of the Ukrainian forces, Ivan Mazepa, remains a source of controversy between Moscow and Kyiv. Mazepa was Ukraine's so-called Hetman, or leader of its Cossack military forces.


In Russia he is considered a traitor who betrayed an oath of allegiance to Czar Peter the Great, the victorious commander at Poltava. The term "traitor Mazepa" remains a common Russian term. He was cast as a villain in works by Russian poet Alexander Pushkin and composer Peter Tchaikovsky, and also excommunicated by the Russian Orthodox Church. That decision is still in effect, despite recent high level requests from Ukrainian political and church leaders to rescind the move.


But Ukrainians say the Hetman was forced to side with Sweden, because Russian ruler Peter the Great failed to honor a 1654 treaty to protect their land against Polish attacks. But until the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russia considered the same treaty to have been an agreement by Ukraine for an everlasting union with its northern neighbor.


Ukrainians also consider Mazepa to have been a great reformer, who built schools and publishing houses, expanded higher learning, and supported the arts, including a distinctly Ukrainian style of church architecture that dominates the modern skyline of Kyiv.


Mazepa's portrait appears on Ukraine's 10-hryvna currency note, and the country will soon unveil a monument to him in Poltava. Last month, the Russian Foreign Ministry issued a statement condemning the statue as divisive. At a recent Poltava conference in Moscow, Vladimir Artamonov of the Russian Academy of Sciences told fellow historians the battle liberated Ukraine from Swedish invaders.

Artamanov says Poltava was not a tragedy for Ukraine, but rather a tragedy for Mazepa and his followers who sought to subordinate "Little Russia" to Poland. Russians often use the term "Little Russia" as a synonym for Ukraine. Many Ukrainians resent it as demeaning.

Genocide issues

Speaking at the same Moscow conference, Ukrainian historian Serhiy Poltavets said it is important to consider why Mazepa allied himself with Sweden. Poltavets says documentary evidence indicates that Mazepa's goal was to create an independent Ukraine; that his goal contradicted the political and geopolitical aims of the Russian state is something, which cannot be denied.


Moscow and Kyiv are also at odds over historic assessments of an artificial famine during the period of Soviet land collectivization in the early 1930's that claimed the lives of millions, particularly in Ukraine, Russia and Kazakhstan. Ukrainians consider it an act of genocide. The Kremlin says food was intentionally withheld from peasants as a class, but not any ethnic group, and therefore cannot be considered a violation of the United Nations Genocide Convention, which does not mention class.


Another point of contention is Ukraine's World War II guerillas, who fought Soviets and Nazis after mistakenly welcoming Germans as liberators. They are seen as freedom fighters by Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko and as fascist collaborators by his Russian counterpart, Dmitri Medvedev.


Last month, Mr. Medvedev announced creation of a government commission to help prevent what he said was falsification of history that harms the interests of Russia. Mr. Medvedev says Russians are increasingly being confronted with what is known as historic falsification, and perhaps many have noticed that these attempts are becoming increasingly harsh, mean, and aggressive.



In Ukraine, President Viktor Yushchenko condemned foreign and domestic attempts to brand Ivan Mazepa as a traitor. Mr. Yushchenko says enough to looking at history through foreign eyes. He calls on Ukrainians to look at Mazepa with their own eyes, with Ukrainian eyes.


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Source:

http://www.voanews.com/english/2009-06-25-voa33.cfm

Tags:

Viktor Yushchenko, Dmitri Medvedev, Russian history, Ukrainian history, Ivan Mazepa, Serhiy poltavets, Soviet Union, Nazi Germany, Genocide, World War II, United Nations Genocide Convention, Kyiv, Moscow, Kremlin, Global Development News,

Posted via email from Global Business News

August 13, 2009

A Reclusive Billionaire Gives Away His Fortune


One by one, speakers rose to toast the elderly gent with baggy pants and a shy, gaptoothed smile.

"Of course, he didn't wear a tie tonight," teased one. Another called attention to the honoree's cheap watch and the plastic bag that serves as his briefcase. The joshing at a Manhattan gathering would have been nothing out of the ordinary except that the man pulling a worn blue blazer over his head in mock modesty was none other than the onetime billionaire, Chuck Feeney.

Never heard of him? No surprise there.

Over the years, the frugal 76-year-old has made a fetish out of anonymity. He declined to name his foundation, Atlantic Philanthropies, after himself, registering the $8-billion behemoth in Bermuda to avoid U.S. disclosure laws. He lavishes hundreds of millions of dollars on universities and hospitals but won't allow even a small plaque identifying him as a donor.

"We just didn't want to be blowing our horn," he explains in a rare interview at his daughter's Upper East Side apartment. The party was to celebrate a biography of the elusive tycoon by Irish journalist Conor O'Clery, titled "The Billionaire Who Wasn't: How Chuck Feeney Secretly Made and Gave Away a Fortune," published last fall.

Feeney said he cooperated with the book and submitted to an interview because he is driven by a new public mission: nudging hedge fund heavies and silicon scions into "giving while living." It is the latest trend in philanthropy and one that he, more than anyone, jump-started several years before billionaires like Bill Gates and Warren E. Buffett followed suit.


Feeney, a founder of the conglomerate Duty Free Shoppers, said he wants to "set an example" to address "that layer up there of people," the ones, as he puts it, who have "a jillion dollars. . . . I mean, honestly, if you ask them, 'Tell me what you're doing with your money this week?' they couldn't spend a fraction of what they're accruing." Most foundations, set up after the donor's death, dribble out barely more than 5% of their assets each year, the legal minimum.

But Feeney, raised in a blue-collar Irish Catholic family in New Jersey, quietly transferred the bulk of his fortune to his foundation when he was 53. Then, eight years ago, he instructed his board to pay out every last dollar by 2016. So far: $4 billion down, $4 billion to go. Atlantic Philanthropies is spreading its wealth at the rate of more than $400 million a year, more than any U.S.-based family foundation apart from Bill & Melinda Gates and Ford.

As Feeney sees it, there is too much misery in the world to justify delay. "I'm not going to die until I can spend it," he vows with a merry chuckle. Feeney's biggest beneficiary has been Cornell University, which he attended on the GI Bill, earning spending money by selling sandwiches to fraternities. Over four decades, he has donated an astonishing $588 million to the Ithaca, N.Y., campus, almost all of it anonymously.

Many of Feeney's grants are still directed to traditional bricks and mortar -- $60 million for a Stanford biomedical center and $125 million for a UC San Francisco cardiovascular complex. But others are iconoclastic: Fighting homophobia among South African Muslims. Lobbying against the death penalty in New Jersey. Buying medical supplies for Cuban-trained doctors. Funding a Washington office for Sinn Fein during the Irish peace negotiations.

Feeney built his global enterprise through cutthroat competition and uncanny business intuition. He speaks fluent French and Japanese. And he still hop-scotches from Dublin to Da Nang seeding new projects.

But his demeanor is affable and unprepossessing and his conversational style is hesitant. He is allergic to introspection. Direct questions send him into vague digressions leavened with humorous asides. In the tiny world of stratospheric wealth, Feeney is a man of yin and yang: extravagant charity coupled with personal penny-pinching. "It's the intelligent thing to be frugal," says the erstwhile billionaire, who jokingly refers to himself as "the shabby philanthropist."

He once owned six luxurious homes from the French Riviera to Mayfair to Park Avenue. These days, he owns none, instead hunkering down in a cramped one-bedroom rental in San Francisco with his second wife, Helga, his former secretary. He raked in billions selling duty-free cognac, perfume and designer labels. But you won't catch Feeney in a Hermes tie or Gucci loafers. He once met the prime minister of Ireland with his drugstore glasses held together by a paper clip.

Feeney doesn't own a car and prefers buses to taxis. Until he turned 75, he flew coach. Now, making excuses for wobbly knees, he upgrades with frequent flier miles. Fine dining? "There are restaurants you can go in and pay $100 a person for a meal," he muses. "I get as much satisfaction out of paying $25. I happen to enjoy grilled cheese and tomato sandwiches."

Niall O'Dowd, a friend of Feeney and editor of Irish-America magazine, reflects: "The way he copes with his wealth is to never remove himself from his working-class persona. He keeps grounded by acting like it hasn't happened to him -- like basically he is still the same guy." At the book party, most of the guests were bused in from the Garden State: former classmates from St. Mary's of the Assumption High School and an extended clan of Feeney-Fitzpatricks, including two of his five children.

Feeney joked about his "rent-a-crowd" but, amid the toasts and roasts, seemed moved: "Who was it who said, 'My cup runneth over?' " He planted a kiss on the head of his 21-year old great-nephew, Dennis Fitzpatrick, who has cerebral palsy and uses a wheelchair. He autographed copies of the book while seated at a small table with Dennis by his side.

"He'd send my parents $50,000 for our college educations," nephew Daniel Fitzpatrick, 50, recalled. "But if you went out to have a beer with him, he'd check the bar bill. . . . If I left the light on in a bedroom, he'd say, 'By the way, you left a light on.' And I knew I'd better go up and turn it off."

O'Clery, former international business editor of the Irish Times, spent two years traveling with Feeney and investigating a financial empire that had been sheathed for decades in obsessive secrecy. He unfolds a story of ferocious entrepreneurship that operated, he concluded, "on the edge of legality but was never corrupt." Shortly after graduating from college, Feeney, who had served in the U.S. Air Force in Japan during the Korean War, moved to Europe. With a partner he knew from Cornell, Robert Miller, he began peddling duty-free liquor to sailors.

The two went on to sell cars to American soldiers based in Europe and Asia. Eventually, profiting from a postwar boom in tourism, they built Duty Free Shoppers into the biggest retailer of liquor and cigarettes in the world and a global purveyor of luxury goods. Their ingenious schemes stretched the limits of the duty-free concept. As O'Clery explains, Duty Free Shoppers allowed a tourist in Mexico, for instance, to peruse a catalog and choose a cashmere sweater to be shipped from Amsterdam to his home in the U.S. Leaving Mexico, he could declare the faraway sweater as "unaccompanied baggage" and avoid paying duty. Feeney and Miller operated with Swiss bank accounts and offshore headquarters in Lichtenstein, Monaco and the Netherlands Antilles. They registered assets in the names of Danielle, Feeney's French wife, and Miller's Ecuadorean wife, Chantal, as a precaution against the long arm of the U.S. Internal Revenue Service.

Today, Feeney makes no apologies. "Most large companies structure their affairs so that they minimize their tax payments," he says, rocking back on an armchair in his daughter's apartment. "As long as you do it within the law, it's OK." For Duty Free Shoppers, publicity was to be avoided at all cost, to ward off not just tax collectors but also competitors. "If you had a machine to make money, you wouldn't blow your horn and say copy me, copy me," says Feeney, whose annual share of dividends from the business reached $155 million in 1988, making him richer at the time than Rupert Murdoch, David Rockefeller or Donald Trump.

Why did he decide to give it away, leaving himself with a net worth then that dipped below $1 million? "I'm an easygoing guy," he shrugs. "I like to eat my grilled cheese and tomato sandwiches quietly. I don't like people to say, 'Look over there; he's eating a grilled cheese and tomato sandwich.' " In 1990, Feeney had separated from Danielle. And, in the divorce, she retained their mansions and luxury apartments, along with $100 million. "The wealth got to him," recalls his nephew, Fitzpatrick. "He got disgusted by it, in my opinion. He said, 'This expensive heavy-duty lifestyle doesn't fit me.' "

Feeney gave his children, friends and colleagues copies of Andrew Carnegie's 1889 essay "The Gospel of Wealth," in which the robber baron-turned-philanthropist admonishes rich men to use their fortunes to help others and "to set an example of modest unostentatious living, shunning display." In the realm of modesty, Feeney tended to extremes. For years, Atlantic Philanthropies staff couldn't tell their families where they worked. Beneficiaries, few of whom knew the origin of their grants, signed agreements acknowledging that the funding would halt if its source were revealed.

It was only in 1997 that the existence of Atlantic Philanthropies became public during the sale of Duty Free Shoppers to French luxury goods magnate Bernard Arnault. Court papers revealed that Feeney's share of the company had been transferred to a foundation. The news that a huge donor had surfaced -- bigger than renowned charitable institutions founded by the Pew, Lilly, MacArthur, Rockefeller and Mellon families -- rocked the philanthropic world, although many had long suspected something was afoot.

Today, though Atlantic Philanthropies lists its grants on its website, it still won't issue news releases touting accomplishments. Black tie thank-you dinners, along with plaques, remain verboten. Feeney's practical reason for not plastering his moniker on buildings is to attract matching donors who would want naming rights -- as was the case at Stanford with high-tech tycoon Jim Clark and at a UC San Francisco cancer facility with venture capitalist Arthur Rock.

Does Feeney have no ego, then? "It doesn't matter who put the building up," he says. "The important thing is that it happens." In Vietnam, he recounts with a chuckle, "the people at the Da Nang General Hospital felt so bad that we wouldn't put our name on the hospital that they painted it green" -- shamrock green. He pauses, adding, "Which used up a lot of paint."

Although his parents were American-born, Feeney's attachment to the land of his ancestors runs deep. The Republic of Ireland in the 1980s was plagued by high unemployment, a brain drain and the festering guerrilla war to the north. Anonymously, Feeney began pouring money into renovating Ireland's seven universities, along with two in Northern Ireland.

He offered $125 million for postgraduate research if the Irish government would match the amount, nearly 20 times what the Republic was spending a year. Soon, Ireland's best and brightest flocked to the new research institutes. In all, Atlantic Philanthropies has spent more than $1 billion in Ireland.

In 1993, O'Dowd, who had worked with Feeney to promote U.S. naturalization for Irish immigrants, asked him to join in what would become the Connolly House Group, named after the Belfast headquarters of Sinn Fein, the political arm of the Irish Republican Army. The small, secret group of Irish Americans offered the newly elected Clinton administration a back-channel to negotiate a cease fire between Britain and the Irish Republican Army.

"At the time, it was risky business to be seen 'talking to terrorists'--that was the label," said former Rep. Bruce Morrison, one of the group. Feeney was intensely involved in the negotiations that led Clinton to grant a visa to Sinn Fein leader Gerry Adams, and he funded a Washington office for Sinn Fein to the tune of $750,000.

"It was New Jersey working class meets Belfast working class," O'Dowd recalled of a secret meeting between Feeney and Adams in a Dublin safe house. "These two guys understood each other right away." The peace process was ultimately successful, and Feeney has since funneled millions into reconciliation programs in Northern Ireland. "The only way you're going to solve things with your friends or enemies is to sit down and talk to them," he says today. "It didn't seem right to me that Irish people were killing Irish people."

On the coffee table in his daughter's living room, Feeney opens Bill Clinton's recent bestseller "Giving." He turns to the chapter "How Much Should You Give and Why?" and reads from statistics derived from U.S. income tax data showing that if the top 14,400 taxpayers gave a third of their income, the total would be about $61 billion.

Feeney shakes his head. "People who wouldn't miss it," he muses. "Sixty-one billion in one year!" And why isn't it happening? "People traditionally collect money. I guess there is an attraction to be known as a wealthy person," he says. "It's not my role in life to tell them what they should be doing. . . . I'm just convinced if people gave money to things they've identified as being in the public interest, they'd get great satisfaction out of it."

Feeney mentions one of his favorite charities, Operation Smile, which sponsors surgeons to operate on children with cleft palates in developing countries. He tells of watching a little girl in a waiting room sitting with her hands covering her mouth. "I kept an eye on her," he recalls. "After she had the operation and she was smiling [like], 'It's not the ugly me you knew before. It's the new me.' "

On another occasion, he says, a man in a restaurant called him over and said, "Do you realize you educated me in this business? I had one of your scholarships . . . and here I am now, the general manager of this chain. " O'Clery, who hung out with Feeney for several years at P.J. Clarke's, the Manhattan pub, before broaching the topic of a book, attributes Feeney's generosity to growing up with charitable parents and in a neighborhood where people helped one another.

He calls his subject an "enigma. . . . He likes to make money, but he doesn't like to have it. He travels all over the world, but in a way, he's never left Elizabeth, N.J." Feeney suggests with a cryptic smile, "There's a thin line between sanity and the other side. Some people might even say the idea of giving money away is crazy."

For those folks, Feeney has a Gaelic proverb: "There are no pockets in a shroud."

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Source:

http://articles.latimes.com/2008/mar/08/local/me-feeney8

Tags:

LA Times, Atlantic Philanthropies, Duty Free Shoppers, Chuck Feeney, Bill Gates, Warren E. Buffett, founder of the conglomerate Duty Free Shoppers, Irish Catholic, Cornell University, Bernard Arnault, IRA, Sinn Fein, Korea, Japan, Vietnam, Global Best Practice,

Posted via email from Global Business News

August 10, 2009

What Can Replace Efficient Markets Theory?


The most interesting thing about the efficient markets hypothesis is not whether it is valid or not – clearly it is not – but how it has managed to remain so influential for so long. At a recent conference in London on the subject, organised by the CFA Institute, Professor Andrew Lo of Massachusetts Institute of Technology offered the audience a simple explanation: “physics envy”.

This was a reference back to the early inspiration of the Nobel economics laureate Paul Samuelson, who set out to find for economics a set of fundamental laws that would do for the dismal science what Newton’s laws of thermodynamics had done for physics, and from which a rigorous general theory with practical uses could subsequently be developed.

Using such building blocks as utility theory, equilibrium and the principle of no arbitrage (“no free lunches”), this led Mr Samuelson and his many successors to develop what we have come to know as the discipline of microeconomics that is universally taught to every finance and economics student at university and business school. The efficient markets hypothesis and the notion that stock prices follow a random walk are offshoots of this approach.

The attempt to bring order and an overarching theoretical framework into analysis of the seemingly unruly behaviour of financial markets was a temptation that has for years proved too great for academics (and many market participants) to resist, but it has turned out to be a long and largely fruitless journey. The problem of course, as Prof Lo has helped to demonstrate with his empirical studies of the random walk, is that the financial markets simply don’t lend themselves to deductive theory as well as the physical world.

If a theoretical approach is not firmly grounded, it is not surprising that the predicted consequences that flow from it should fail to show up consistently in the way that investors and markets actually behave. Behavioural finance has grown to become a popular alternative approach precisely because it does appear to explain more clearly how investors, individually and collectively, appear to act. In Prof Lo’s words: “Economic systems involve human interactions, which almost by definition are more complex than interactions of inanimate objects governed by fixed and known laws of motion.”

The real beauty of the efficient markets hypothesis, and the explanation for its longevity in the face of consistent empirical evidence that it is invalid, surely lies in its beguiling simplicity. As the future is uncertain and many of the key variables that concern investors cannot be predicted with confidence, a theoretical structure that appears to offer a way to live with uncomfortable reality has obvious attractions.

Prof Lo’s own response has been to develop what he calls the adaptive market hypothesis, which seeks to draw on the insights of neuroscience and evolutionary biology. The hypothesis aims to create a framework that seeks to relate the behaviour of financial markets to a number of different factors, including the emotional condition of market participants at different points in time and the current balance of advantage between competing groups of market participants.

“Market efficiency,” he says “cannot be evaluated in a vacuum, but is highly context-dependent and dynamic, just as insect populations advance and decline as a function of the seasons, the number of predators and prey they face, and their abilities to adapt to an ever-changing environment.”

What is at work in financial markets, he believes, is a Darwinian process of “survival of the richest”. The implications of this approach are interesting. One is that the relationship between risk and return will not be stable over time, which seems right both intuitively and empirically. Another is that, rather than markets becoming steadily more efficient over time, as early proponents of the EMH proclaimed, this world is one in which new profit opportunities will continue to emerge at a constant rate.

This is the engine that provides the continuing incentive for active managers to remain in the market. But they will need to be innovative and adaptive to changing market conditions if they are to remain successful, Prof Lo argues. One-trick ponies risk going out of business before their kind of market next comes around. Most important of all, investors cannot rely on the comforting message of the efficient market hypothesis that all you need to do to obtain an expected return is to take the appropriate level of risk.

The biggest problem with this new approach, as with all alternatives to EMH, including behavioural finance, is that it doesn’t give investors a simple metric for understanding what to do. Its great merit, however, is that it appears to relate to the complex and uncertain world that we all actually inhabit, something the efficient markets hypothesis has never done.

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Source: http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/cf6d096a-6d7a-11de-8b19-00144feabdc0.html


Tags:

CFA Institute, Professor Andrew Lo, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, MIT, “physics envy”, behavioural finance, Global Economic News, Darwinian process, “survival of the richest”, “Market efficiency”, financial markets,

Posted via email from Global Business News